Thoughts on Blake Griffen-dor

Am I the only one who thinks that it is only a matter of time before Blake Griffen turns out to be a bust?

I say this even though Griffen seems to be a truly can't-miss prospect. He put up tremendous scoring and rebounding numbers in college. He may be the best rebounder since Rodman. He jumps so high that it looks like he is playing Slamball. He has Mark Madsen's hustle and work ethic. He is a good guy off the court, the antithesis of Pac Man Jones. While few expect the second coming of Karl Malone, many expect a Hall of Fame career from Griffen.

YouTube footage showcases Griffen's skill, athleticism, and potential:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kPyjOjsnxU

However, he has one thing going against him. One very big thing. He will be joining the Los Angeles Clippers. This, after all, is a franchise that has collected top 5 picks like Pokemon cards. And what do they have to show for all of these blue chip picks? One postseason appearance in the past ten years.

Such consistent failure is all the more remarkable when one considers that historically, top 5 NBA draft picks have a higher likelihood of success than in any other sport. Yet the Clippers have an uncanny ability to turn can't miss prospects into busts.

Yesterday I read an article in the Sporting News about how number one overall NBA picks are highly likely to have sustained success in the NBA. Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Tim Duncan, Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Elton Brand come to mind.

Yet in 1998, despite having the number one pick, the Clippers managed to miss big in the NBA draft that year, when they drafted the the University of Pacific's Michael Olowokandi. This in a draft whose top 10 included Mike Bibby, Vince Carter, Antawn Jamison, Dirk Nowitzki, and Paul Pierce. Two of the quote-unquote flops of that year's top 10 were Jason Williams and Raef LaFrentz, whose careers both far surpassed Olowokandi's.

Blake Griffen is a can't miss prospect, but unless the Clipps pass on him or trade him away (not out of the realm of possibility), his career will be dragged into anonomity and failure, as was the case Olowokandi, Darius Miles, Shaun Livingston, and other Clipper draftees before him.